Tue, Mar 21, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 29 | 19 | 17 | 425 |
| FLA | 212 | 112 | 011 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jason Demers, Jaromir Jagr · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:09CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 11:51FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 14:24CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 1:14FLAKeith YandleAssists: Jason Demers, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 1:41CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 16:05CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:45FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:41CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:47CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:34CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CARBrock McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57CARKlas Dahlbeck: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan8:40
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Nordstrom – McGinn – Brown3:53
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Di Giuseppe – Aho2:56
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Teravainen – Lindholm3:02
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlbeck – Murphy11:23
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin4:32
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce12:41
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:21
xG 0.98–0.18 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour5:59
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:28
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault8:48
xG 0.05–0.33 (14%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers14:03
xG 1.02–0.33 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad13:20
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Matheson17:03
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).