Tue, Mar 21, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 17 | 112 | 226 |
| WPG | 08 | 110 | 215 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:28PHIJordan WealAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:02WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 7:02WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 13:51WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:58PHIMatt ReadSHAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:54PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:54WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P2 5:17PHINick Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17PHIIvan Provorov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:29PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:34PHIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:34WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:11PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:11WPGAdam Lowry: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:11WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:21WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:11PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:11PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:11WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Read – Bellemare4:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Konecny8:05
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Weal9:44
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Weise – Schenn – Couturier8:50
xG 0.05–0.77 (6%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas13:33
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Schultz – Gostisbehere11:40
xG 0.25–0.59 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov12:54
xG 0.08–0.52 (13%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele12:20
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp8:42
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine11:12
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Dano – Petan2:07
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Morrissey11:25
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Byfuglien – Morrissey2:10
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stuart – Nogier9:51
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).