Tue, Mar 21, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Vancouver Canucks 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 13 | 25 | 16 | 11 | 515 |
| CHI | 07 | 114 | 319 | 04 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Michael Chaput · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:33VANBrandon SutterAssists: Jayson Megna · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 3:15CHIRyan HartmanPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 7:45VANReid BoucherAssists: Chris Tanev, Sven Baertschi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 2:15VANBrandon SutterAssists: Jack Skille, Alexander Edler · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 5:48CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 8:10CHIRichard PanikAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 18:57CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 2:12VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Troy Stecher, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:43VANBen Hutton: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:30CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P2 1:49VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:25VANAlex Biega: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:49VANDrew Shore: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:47VANJoseph Cramarossa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:28VANHenrik Sedin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 1:32CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Sutter – Megna6:45
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Shore – Baertschi – Horvat2:29
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Boucher – Baertschi – Horvat9:20
xG 0.26–0.50 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Chaput13:02
xG 0.20–0.59 (26%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Stecher11:41
xG 0.14–0.38 (28%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin13:01
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
- Sbisa – Tanev11:25
xG 0.47–1.18 (28%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Hayden11:19
xG 0.71–0.03 (96%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Jurco – Rasmussen – Kero3:56
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Hartman5:47
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Schmaltz – Kero2:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson9:57
xG 0.95–0.14 (87%)attempts 14–2goals 0–1
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk13:49
xG 0.63–0.18 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson5:31
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).