Wed, Mar 22, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 116 | 26 | 532 |
| CBJ | 013 | 211 | 010 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55TORLeo KomarovAssists: Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:54TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.36 xG2–0
- P2 0:43CBJDavid SavardAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 6:58CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Zach Werenski, Sam Gagner · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 13:23TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 15:46TORNazem KadriAssists: Leo Komarov, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–2
- P3 17:13TORNikita ZaitsevENAssists: Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:11CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:39CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:11CBJLukas Sedlak: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:00TORRoman Polak: Boarding5 min
- P3 1:00TORRoman Polak: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown10:39
xG 1.12–0.22 (84%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Fehr – Boyle – Martin7:46
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews9:32
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:09
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev12:28
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Carrick4:58
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick4:20
xG 0.14–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Jenner – Anderson13:25
xG 0.85–0.37 (70%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Gagner – Atkinson – Saad8:51
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg7:28
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Calvert – Sedlak – Karlsson6:22
xG 0.07–0.73 (9%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard17:28
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Quincey – Nutivaara14:39
xG 0.82–0.77 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski14:25
xG 0.72–1.33 (35%)attempts 12–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).