Wed, Mar 22, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 215 | 06 | 111 | 332 |
| ANA | 26 | 220 | 08 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Patrick Maroon, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:46ANAPatrick EavesAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 8:49EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 19:29ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 1:33ANAJosh MansonAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 11:23ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 19:53EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:23EDMKris Russell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:43ANAAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P2 6:52EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:32ANAJared Boll: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:32EDMPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:38EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P2 15:18EDMEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P2 16:31ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:46EDMMark Letestu: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:32ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:19ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:44ANAJosh Manson: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Slepyshev – Caggiula7:47
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins8:34
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian9:47
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid12:15
xG 0.57–0.95 (38%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell12:29
xG 1.40–0.35 (80%)attempts 21–11goals 2–0
- Larsson – Klefbom10:50
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Gryba – Nurse10:58
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Eaves – Rakell11:16
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:43
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Vermette – Perry – Ritchie10:38
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Thompson – Boll – Wagner4:49
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Fowler7:28
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler4:12
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Lindholm2:01
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).