Thu, Mar 23, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 311 | 38 | 629 |
| BOS | 09 | 314 | 08 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:33BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:17TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jake Dotchin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 7:50BOSZdeno CharaSHAssists: Riley Nash, Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 8:14TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 13:18BOSRiley NashAssists: Dominic Moore, Kevan Miller · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 14:53TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 4:12TBLJonathan DrouinGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 10:11TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 18:03TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:55BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P1 1:55TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:08BOSFrank Vatrano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:18TBLGabriel Dumont: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:21TBLGabriel Dumont: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:25BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:09TBLOndrej Palat: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:09BOSPatrice Bergeron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:53TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:41BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:37BOSDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P3 12:19TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:48BOSFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Spooner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point10:22
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Drouin10:28
xG 0.28–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Gourde – Vermin – Erne7:46
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin6:11
xG 0.72–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Stralman – Sustr2:30
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sustr5:48
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak4:09
xG 0.10–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Spooner – Vatrano – Acciari3:32
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Beleskey – Nash4:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Nash – Acciari2:19
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 1–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Miller10:05
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug2:30
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug6:27
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).