Thu, Mar 23, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 06 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 130 |
| WSH | 015 | 016 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:41CBJSeth JonesAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P3 6:39WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 4. CBJ Sam Gagner stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 6. CBJ Alexander Wennberg stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:25CBJJosh Anderson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:25WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:27CBJMatt Calvert: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:55CBJBoone Jenner: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 14:59CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:13WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:42WSHBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Jenner – Anderson4:21
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Gagner – Atkinson – Saad3:57
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg6:06
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Sedlak3:32
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Jones2:10
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Quincey – Jones2:34
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski12:32
xG 0.89–1.11 (45%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Beagle – Wilson9:07
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:14
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:45
xG 1.08–0.85 (56%)attempts 23–9goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky6:53
xG 0.12–0.15 (46%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Orlov3:22
xG 0.71–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Shattenkirk11:10
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Alzner2:01
xG 0.01–0.03 (18%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).