Thu, Mar 23, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 07 | 114 | 232 |
| TOR | 211 | 111 | 18 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59NJDJohn MooreAssists: Damon Severson, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 5:46TORJosh LeivoPPAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P1 18:17TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Nikita Zaitsev · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:04TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 9:04NJDJohn MoorePPAssists: Pavel Zacha, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:14TORConnor BrownENAssists: Leo Komarov, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:26NJDJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:30TORBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:05NJDBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:05TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:32TORWilliam Nylander: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:49TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P3 7:14TORMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:14TORBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:14NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:14TORBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:14NJDTravis Zajac: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:44NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Blandisi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPietila – Coleman – Noesen8:02
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pietila – Coleman – Wood3:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Noesen – Quenneville – Zacha2:30
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Blandisi – Quenneville5:49
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Merrill12:56
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy13:33
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson14:57
xG 0.26–1.04 (20%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown10:33
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:21
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews8:05
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hyman – Matthews2:22
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev13:29
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Zaitsev2:27
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carrick7:07
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).