Thu, Mar 23, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 15 | 29 | 423 |
| MTL | 17 | 09 | 06 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Andrew Shaw, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:10CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 19:21CARLee StempniakGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 5:11CARLee StempniakAssists: Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 17:57CARJeff SkinnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:23MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:34CARJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 13:38MTLAlexander Radulov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Shaw
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – McGinn10:36
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan12:59
xG 0.72–0.62 (54%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Di Giuseppe – Lindholm – Aho10:37
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Rask – Brown8:38
xG 0.06–0.43 (12%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin17:14
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Pesce8:41
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce4:11
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McCarron – Martinsen9:37
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Shaw – Galchenyuk2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher10:32
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault12:30
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Weber19:48
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry17:06
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Benn – Davidson13:37
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).