Thu, Mar 23, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 112 | 08 | 05 | 0 | 135 |
| OTT | 08 | 012 | 19 | 01 | 2 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:21PITNick BoninoPPAssists: Mark Streit · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 9:43OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 2. PIT Nick Bonino stopped
- 3. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:31OTTBobby Ryan: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:31PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:55OTTTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:55PITFrank Corrado: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:59OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:29PITOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:39OTTDion Phaneuf: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 9:29PITMatt Cullen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKuhnhackl – Archibald – Sundqvist7:42
xG 0.22–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rowney12:06
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Wilson – Sheary12:29
xG 0.36–0.63 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Kessel9:04
xG 0.06–0.86 (6%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Ruhwedel11:31
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz3:02
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Streit – Ruhwedel6:33
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Hoffman – Pageau11:15
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Smith10:25
xG 0.62–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Burrows – Brassard – Dzingel9:37
xG 0.41–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Stalberg – Wingels4:38
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci9:47
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman6:05
xG 0.40–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci7:33
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).