Thu, Mar 23, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 19 | 07 | 125 |
| NSH | 07 | 23 | 17 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:02NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Craig Smith, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:58NSHColton SissonsGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 10:29CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Micheal Ferland, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 12:00NSHRyan EllisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:24NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min
- P1 9:19NSHViktor Arvidsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:57CGYFreddie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:18NSHJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P2 14:35NSHColin Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:14NSHViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:06CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:12
xG 1.21–0.21 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer9:53
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett10:21
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Bouma – Chiasson – Hamilton5:28
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton14:55
xG 1.17–0.06 (95%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie13:12
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Engelland – Bartkowski12:45
xG 0.23–0.39 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Fiala9:26
xG 0.07–0.03 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Fiddler – McLeod – Watson4:59
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Smith – Sissons6:47
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:29
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Subban – Ekholm15:58
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin10:02
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:08
xG 0.36–1.14 (24%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).