Thu, Mar 23, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 16 | 19 | 327 |
| MIN | 111 | 010 | 04 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07MINZach PariseAssists: Eric Staal, Gustav Olofsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:59PHISean CouturierAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dale Weise · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 0:21PHIMatt ReadGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 19:15PHIJakub VoracekENAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:32PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 3:56MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P3 4:56PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Read11:34
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Weise – Schenn – Couturier14:11
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Konecny6:38
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:49
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov16:47
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gudas2:06
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Gostisbehere10:11
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Coyle14:46
xG 0.74–0.39 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Haula6:49
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund15:42
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Pominville – Hanzal – Niederreiter10:29
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Olofsson7:43
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:35
xG 0.51–0.46 (52%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin3:02
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).