Thu, Mar 23, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 114 | 111 | 06 | 1 | 244 |
| CHI | 17 | 07 | 19 | 03 | 2 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Richard Panik, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 12:26DALAles HemskyAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 8:37CHIMarian HossaAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 14:51DALAles HemskyAssists: Jamie Benn, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 5. CHI Artemi Panarin scored
- 6. DAL Ales Hemsky stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:29CHIRichard Panik: Interference2 min
- P1 7:23DALRemi Elie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:35CHIMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:37DALDevin Shore: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:49DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:16CHIRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:46CHIRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:46DALDan Hamhuis: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:05DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Faksa – Shore10:56
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Benn – Seguin2:25
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Hudler – Cracknell – McKenzie7:27
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Benn – Eakin9:45
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:22
xG 0.85–0.32 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Oleksiak2:34
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Oleksiak8:39
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Rasmussen – Kero3:34
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Hayden11:00
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Hartman – Panarin10:34
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Schmaltz8:35
xG 0.12–0.79 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Seabrook13:43
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk13:32
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:42
xG 0.65–0.88 (42%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).