Thu, Mar 23, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 7, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 19 | 515 | 730 |
| COL | 210 | 25 | 06 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:54COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Joe Colborne · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 19:29EDMAndrej SekeraAssists: Mark Letestu, Drake Caggiula · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 0:26EDMMilan LucicAssists: Jordan Eberle, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 4:22COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 17:45COLRene BourqueAssists: Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 2:44EDMZack KassianAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 4:34EDMJordan EberleAssists: Andrej Sekera, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 17:49EDMDrake CaggiulaGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 18:50EDMJordan EberleAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–4
- P3 19:19EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.67 xG7–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:13EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:22EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:35COLSven Andrighetto: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:17COLFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:59EDMDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Desharnais – Kassian9:27
xG 0.40–0.15 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Caggiula6:20
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Letestu – Maroon – Pakarinen5:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Caggiula3:27
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:12
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 2–2
- Sekera – Russell15:21
xG 0.64–0.68 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 3–2
- Benning – Nurse14:24
xG 0.10–0.36 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:39
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Bourque – Colborne – Compher8:46
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Landeskog9:51
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Soderberg9:38
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Barrie13:35
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Barberio – Barrie3:47
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson2:09
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).