Thu, Mar 23, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 08 | 06 | 221 |
| LAK | 16 | 116 | 314 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Brian Strait, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:23LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:41WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mathieu Perreault · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:06LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 2:01LAKMarian GaborikPPGWGAssists: Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 3:57LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 9:22LAKTanner PearsonSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:09LAKKyle Clifford: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:09WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:30WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:30LAKNic Dowd: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:52LAKBen Bishop: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:58LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:50WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:02WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:39WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:09LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele12:35
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp8:31
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Petan – Tanev6:28
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine12:57
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Nogier9:54
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Melchiori – Morrissey2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Melchiori16:47
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Nolan – Dowd8:10
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Brown – Kopitar13:07
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Lewis – Kempe8:44
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson12:00
xG 0.24–0.28 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:57
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Doughty – McNabb2:09
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- McNabb – LaDue14:25
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).