Sat, Mar 25, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 013 | 012 | 036 |
| CBJ | 05 | 18 | 08 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:11CBJAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: Kyle Quincey · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:10CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:40PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:40CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:27PHINick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:47CBJBoone Jenner: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:47PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:47PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:07CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:52CBJDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:52CBJDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Schenn – Couturier10:03
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Konecny3:23
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read10:21
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Gostisbehere6:31
xG 0.35–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov12:46
xG 0.39–0.22 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Manning – Provorov2:09
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Sedlak – Karlsson9:31
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Wennberg8:59
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Gagner – Atkinson – Saad7:24
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson8:23
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:00
xG 0.91–0.48 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski14:28
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Quincey – Harrington10:52
xG 0.17–0.36 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).