Sat, Mar 25, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 111 | 010 | 132 |
| MTL | 16 | 212 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:13MTLAndrei MarkovGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 5:55MTLAndrei MarkovPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 12:11OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:41MTLAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:41OTTAlexandre Burrows: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 8:51OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 2:43MTLNathan Beaulieu: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:40OTTChris Wideman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:35MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:35OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:23OTTAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min
- P3 0:51MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:59MTLMichael McCarron: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:32OTTFredrik Claesson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:32MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:32OTTFredrik Claesson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLAlexei Emelin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Brassard – Stone5:18
xG 0.53–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau8:20
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Smith7:33
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel3:02
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman6:50
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson11:47
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci10:44
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Gallagher8:41
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Shaw – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen7:20
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault12:46
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Mitchell – King – McCarron4:57
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Weber13:20
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry13:05
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Beaulieu14:28
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).