Sat, Mar 25, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Boston Bruins 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 13 | 010 | 15 | 218 |
| NYI | 18 | 05 | 06 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:41BOSRiley NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 4:12BOSRiley NashGWGAssists: Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:02NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P1 16:19BOSFrank Vatrano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:16BOSColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:20BOSTorey Krug: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:08NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:03BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:23NYIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00BOSColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:49BOSDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Spooner – Vatrano5:45
xG 0.27–0.16 (64%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Krejci – Pastrnak9:39
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand8:57
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Nash – Acciari6:59
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Miller6:34
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Carlo2:44
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Miller2:34
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Chimera – Nelson – Prince5:21
xG 0.26–0.22 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee8:07
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Ladd – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier5:35
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Cizikas7:27
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Pelech13:05
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Mayfield5:58
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan12:55
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).