Sat, Mar 25, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 010 | 16 | 16 | 331 |
| STL | 013 | 16 | 111 | 01 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:11CGYTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:08STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Colton Parayko, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:16STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 10:53CGYMatt BartkowskiAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:57CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:16CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:42STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:51STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:51CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:40STLPatrik Berglund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:56STLAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:51
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Bouma – Chiasson – Bennett9:16
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer10:55
xG 0.11–0.93 (10%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:59
xG 0.13–1.02 (11%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Stone – Brodie16:56
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Engelland – Bartkowski14:07
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton17:53
xG 0.39–0.95 (29%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:40
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves11:02
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Yakupov – Sanford – Barbashev9:32
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Berglund – Perron – Paajarvi10:53
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:37
xG 1.84–0.47 (80%)attempts 26–18goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo11:58
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko14:40
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).