Sat, Mar 25, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 2, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 28 | 08 | 228 |
| NSH | 212 | 28 | 314 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14NSHColton SissonsAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 15:19NSHCody McLeodAssists: Roman Josi, Austin Watson · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:24SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:48NSHJames NealPPGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 14:39NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Craig Smith, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 16:19SJSJustin BraunAssists: Timo Meier, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 5:27NSHColton SissonsAssists: Craig Smith, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–5
- P3 17:01NSHJames NealPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 19:22NSHViktor ArvidssonSHAssists: Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:30SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:30NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:55SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
- P2 4:14NSHMatt Irwin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:41SJSMarcus Sorensen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:27SJSJoe Pavelski: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:27NSHViktor Arvidsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:11NSHColton Sissons: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:36SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:56NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:56SJSMicheal Haley: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 18:41NSHVernon Fiddler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Sorensen – Meier4:31
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Couture7:23
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Boedker – Donskoi – Hertl7:10
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Sorensen – Hertl – Meier2:31
xG 0.02–0.27 (6%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Braun10:05
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Burns – Schlemko4:25
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:27
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Smith – Sissons8:46
xG 0.66–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 3–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Fiala10:05
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:00
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Fiddler – McLeod – Watson7:29
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm17:52
xG 0.93–0.32 (74%)attempts 24–15goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis15:23
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Weber – Irwin9:12
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).