Sat, Mar 25, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 07 | 07 | 125 |
| EDM | 29 | 010 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Matt Benning, Zack Kassian · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 2:39COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Mark Barberio · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 10:47EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Drake Caggiula, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 8:46EDMDrake CaggiulaPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 15:34EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:21COLFedor Tyutin: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:16EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:16COLFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:58EDMMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:34COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:32EDMDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:09COLJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:35COLRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:46EDMDrake Caggiula: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Bourque7:51
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Landeskog11:25
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Colborne – Grigorenko – Compher6:28
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:50
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barberio12:43
xG 0.95–0.36 (72%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie3:20
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie3:30
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid10:20
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Letestu – Khaira – Caggiula6:15
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian8:32
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:10
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Nurse11:10
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Russell11:49
xG 0.40–0.37 (53%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:12
xG 0.02–0.18 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).