Sun, Mar 26, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 18 | 07 | 01 | 226 |
| DET | 18 | 06 | 13 | 12 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43MINEric StaalAssists: Zach Parise, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:41DETMike GreenAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 16:14MINNate ProsserUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 0:55DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:52DETAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:00MINEric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:59DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:43DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:15MINMikko Koivu: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Schroeder – Haula7:16
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle13:16
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Pominville – Hanzal – Zucker12:54
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Niederreiter14:32
xG 0.15–0.37 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:34
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Prosser – Brodin11:41
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Scandella – Dumba17:58
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar15:24
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Glendening – Nosek6:40
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Mantha2:08
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Athanasiou – Larkin3:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser14:54
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Kronwall – Green14:44
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Green – Ouellet2:28
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).