Sun, Mar 26, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Rangers 3, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 18 | 08 | 328 |
| ANA | 216 | 19 | 39 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54NYRRick NashAssists: Marc Staal, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:55ANAPatrick EavesAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 14:32NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 18:00ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 9:39ANAJosh MansonSHAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 13:10NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 2:19ANAAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–4
- P3 4:23ANAPatrick EavesAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 18:22ANANick RitchieENAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:07NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:07ANACorey Perry: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 2:07ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:34NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:14NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:55ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:05NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Lindberg – Fast – Buchnevich9:37
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello15:22
xG 0.72–0.80 (48%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Nash – Zibanejad – Vesey12:31
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller10:45
xG 0.09–1.08 (7%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Klein – McDonagh15:56
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Smith – Skjei15:30
xG 0.61–0.81 (43%)attempts 16–12goals 2–2
- Staal – Holden14:58
xG 0.30–1.30 (19%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Eaves – Rakell9:43
xG 1.08–0.10 (92%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg13:48
xG 0.75–0.58 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Vermette – Perry – Ritchie12:52
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Thompson – Wagner – Shaw7:43
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Montour13:45
xG 1.15–0.28 (80%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Vatanen – Manson8:50
xG 0.54–0.12 (81%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Lindholm10:05
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).