Tue, Mar 28, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 09 | 110 | 125 |
| BOS | 213 | 05 | 213 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Zdeno Chara, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 13:52BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 11:16NSHCraig SmithAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 15:47BOSNoel AcciariAssists: Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 18:29BOSDavid BackesENAssists: Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:29NSHAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P1 7:43BOSTorey Krug: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:01BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:35BOSDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:43NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min
- P3 18:35NSHVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:35NSHVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:35NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:35BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:35BOSNoel Acciari: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:35NSHCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:35NSHCody McLeod: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:35NSHVernon Fiddler: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – McLeod – Watson6:32
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Smith – Sissons8:17
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Johansen – Fiala – Arvidsson3:56
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Fiala4:38
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:39
xG 0.90–0.29 (76%)attempts 30–11goals 1–1
- Irwin – Bitetto9:22
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm19:02
xG 0.21–0.78 (21%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Krejci – Pastrnak11:52
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand10:30
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Moore – Nash – Acciari11:54
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano6:22
xG 0.04–0.61 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo15:33
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Liles – Miller10:38
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug2:48
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).