Tue, Mar 28, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 08 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 228 |
| PHI | 113 | 07 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:25OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:34PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 12:35OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Cody Ceci, Fredrik Claesson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 14:01PHIJordan WealUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jordan Weal scored
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 6. OTT Tom Pyatt stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:03OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:32PHISean Couturier: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:09PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:48OTTChris Wideman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:01OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:01PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:02OTTChris Kelly: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:09PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Dzingel5:17
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone10:36
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kelly – Burrows – Wingels2:47
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Burrows – Ryan – Turris4:58
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Claesson2:43
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci6:38
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Borowiecki2:08
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Simmonds – Weal9:53
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Weise – Schenn – Couturier10:36
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read7:32
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Konecny4:13
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gostisbehere14:28
xG 0.97–0.33 (74%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov14:43
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas12:55
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).