Tue, Mar 28, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 06 | 112 | 122 |
| CAR | 211 | 111 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10CARLee StempniakAssists: Derek Ryan, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:12CARJoakim NordstromGWGAssists: Brett Pesce, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–2
- P2 13:36CARJordan StaalAssists: Matt Tennyson, Klas Dahlbeck · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P3 13:33DETTomas NosekAssists: Ben Street, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P3 17:22CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:14DETMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:18CARElias Lindholm: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:38DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:31CARMatt Tennyson: Holding2 min
- P3 16:59DETRobbie Russo: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Street – Nosek8:46
xG 1.42–0.30 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Sheahan9:30
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Mantha – Larkin8:37
xG 0.56–0.80 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar10:25
xG 0.24–0.63 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser14:52
xG 1.05–0.79 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Green19:51
xG 0.76–0.79 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Russo – Ouellet13:45
xG 0.18–0.45 (29%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Rask – Teravainen12:12
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – McGinn – Wallmark8:32
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho10:56
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan12:49
xG 0.41–1.39 (23%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin17:07
xG 0.94–0.55 (63%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce17:54
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Dahlbeck – Tennyson14:14
xG 0.61–1.46 (29%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).