Tue, Mar 28, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 015 | 113 | 014 | 142 |
| CBJ | 211 | 08 | 110 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:47CBJKyle QuinceyUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 17:48CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 10:53BUFEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 18:55CBJBrandon SaadENAssists: Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:25CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:25BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:54BUFBrady Austin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:21CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:15BUFJack Eichel: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Foligno – Eichel8:33
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Girgensons – Eichel2:22
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – O'Reilly – Kane11:10
xG 0.40–0.46 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Girgensons – Carrier2:15
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Falk10:04
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Austin10:43
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Gorges – Kulikov2:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSedlak – Jenner – Anderson4:01
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson7:03
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Gagner – Saad5:54
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Calvert – Karlsson2:24
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Harrington12:55
xG 0.84–0.42 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski11:44
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard19:04
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 12–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).