Tue, Mar 28, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 112 | 112 | 227 |
| TOR | 213 | 06 | 16 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:43TORLeo KomarovAssists: Connor Brown, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 15:31FLAReilly SmithAssists: Keith Yandle, Jason Demers · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 3:32TORZach HymanSHGWGAssists: Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 19:04FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 18:52FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:06FLAMike Matheson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 5:39FLAThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:07TORBrian Boyle: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:07FLAColton Sceviour: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:07TORBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:21FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:21TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:21TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:56TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:33FLAAlexander Petrovic: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:52TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:10
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault7:49
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour3:39
xG 0.04–0.28 (12%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:32
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Pysyk9:13
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson14:53
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Yandle – Demers11:56
xG 0.15–0.41 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown9:30
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – Martin – Kapanen6:38
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:58
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews8:51
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carrick9:53
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Polak – Rielly4:25
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:41
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).