Tue, Mar 28, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 010 | 011 | 128 |
| MTL | 014 | 115 | 37 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47DALCurtis McKenzieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 15:49MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 3:21MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 13:02MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 17:58MTLAlexander RadulovAssists: Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 15:07DALStephen Johns: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:07MTLNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:36MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
- P3 18:42DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Benn – Eakin12:48
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Faksa – Shore – Dickinson11:19
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Spezza – Cracknell – McKenzie10:28
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Seguin – Ritchie – Elie11:09
xG 0.18–1.08 (14%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns14:50
xG 0.84–0.66 (56%)attempts 17–18goals 1–2
- Pateryn – Lindell2:57
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell19:04
xG 0.85–1.00 (46%)attempts 17–25goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Pacioretty – Danault15:37
xG 1.36–0.22 (86%)attempts 24–7goals 2–0
- Ott – Mitchell – King9:01
xG 0.45–0.38 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Shaw – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen11:14
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher13:34
xG 0.41–0.91 (31%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry17:35
xG 1.67–0.28 (86%)attempts 25–11goals 1–0
- Benn – Beaulieu13:41
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Markov – Weber16:17
xG 0.35–1.09 (24%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).