Tue, Mar 28, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 1, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 111 | 013 | 011 | 135 |
| EDM | 17 | 18 | 014 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:44EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:11LAKJarome IginlaUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:03EDMEric GrybaGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:08EDMEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:08LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:32EDMDrake Caggiula: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 11:24LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:08LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57LAKTanner Pearson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Clifford – Nolan – Dowd7:41
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Lewis – Toffoli8:52
xG 0.58–0.75 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Kopitar – Pearson9:54
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Brown – Brodzinski – Kempe10:42
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – LaDue6:06
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Doughty4:19
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Martinez – McNabb2:39
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid13:06
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian9:29
xG 0.46–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Letestu – Slepyshev – Caggiula8:15
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:08
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell12:03
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse2:32
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gryba – Nurse13:05
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).