Tue, Mar 28, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 316 | 112 | 011 | 439 |
| VAN | 06 | 012 | 117 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23ANACorey PerryAssists: Nick Ritchie, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 1:37ANAPatrick EavesGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 19:44ANANick RitchieAssists: Josh Manson, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 3:44ANABrandon MontourAssists: Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 2:34VANBrock BoeserAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:15VANLuca Sbisa: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:21VANBen Hutton: Holding2 min
- P1 16:14ANASami Vatanen: Holding2 min
- P2 16:22ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:35VANJoseph LaBate: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:37VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Eaves – Rakell12:27
xG 1.09–0.20 (85%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Perry – Thompson – Ritchie10:15
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:49
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Boll – Wagner – Shaw4:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:06
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Bieksa – Vatanen16:22
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Fowler – Montour11:02
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Chaput – Boeser4:37
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Goldobin4:38
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Boucher – Baertschi – Horvat3:42
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Chaput7:25
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Hutton6:46
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev8:42
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Tanev3:15
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).