Tue, Mar 28, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 17 | 212 | 02 | 428 |
| SJS | 29 | 114 | 110 | 12 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44SJSJannik HansenAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 13:30NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Matt Puempel · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 18:01SJSMelker KarlssonSHAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 11:38SJSChris TierneyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
- P2 19:37NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 1:24NYRJesper FastAssists: Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 4:44NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 17:45SJSChris TierneyAssists: Jannik Hansen, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 3:10SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:55NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 16:09SJSMikkel Boedker: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:29SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:49NYRMika Zibanejad: Embellishment2 min
- P3 2:49SJSChris Tierney: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:25SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:35NYRNick Holden: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Fast11:10
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Miller – Puempel3:20
xG 0.10–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Miller4:22
xG 0.15–0.41 (28%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Nash – Zibanejad – Puempel3:51
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Skjei8:08
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden8:12
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Smith – Skjei6:15
xG 0.04–0.52 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Boedker – Hertl11:08
xG 1.69–0.07 (96%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Tierney – Meier7:18
xG 1.24–0.22 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc14:10
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Karlsson12:43
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns15:59
xG 1.95–0.53 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- Schlemko – Dillon13:40
xG 1.08–0.23 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun17:26
xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).