Wed, Mar 29, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 110 | 214 | 434 |
| CGY | 16 | 06 | 014 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 12:04LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Derek Forbort, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 19:14LAKJarome IginlaGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 6:09LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Jake Muzzin, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 12:40LAKJeff CarterAssists: Jarome Iginla, Marian Gaborik · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 0:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 3:05CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:05LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:36LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:36LAKAndy Andreoff: Misconduct10 min
- P1 7:21CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:42CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:42LAKJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:43CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P2 2:28LAKAndy Andreoff: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:46LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:46LAKAndy Andreoff: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:46LAKAndy Andreoff: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 11:04CGYLance Bouma: Holding2 min
- P2 12:56LAKJake Muzzin: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:48CGYAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:38LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:09CGYAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Gaborik – Kopitar3:42
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe2:40
xG 0.13–0.03 (84%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis3:36
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Brown – Toffoli – Shore2:01
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort3:47
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Gravel6:42
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez11:37
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBouma – Chiasson – Bennett7:03
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer8:29
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan8:00
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk7:26
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Bartkowski8:37
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton8:53
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Brodie – Hamilton2:28
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).