Wed, Mar 29, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Washington Capitals 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 213 | 216 | 16 | 535 |
| COL | 114 | 16 | 115 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:11COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:48WSHJay BeagleAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Tom Wilson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:57WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 11:03WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 13:50COLMatt NietoAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 4:29COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Sven Andrighetto · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:38WSHLars EllerENAssists: Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:27COLFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:28WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:03COLJ.T. Compher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:08WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:03COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P3 5:50WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:20
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson8:39
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:08
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:40
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Orlov13:38
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Orpik – Shattenkirk15:48
xG 0.70–0.99 (41%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:29
xG 0.33–0.79 (29%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:40
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – Compher11:49
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Bourque – Nieto – Grigorenko8:22
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Soderberg5:49
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Barrie8:50
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barberio7:37
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson2:27
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).