Thu, Mar 30, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 122 | 29 | 341 |
| PHI | 519 | 03 | 18 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30PHIDale WeiseAssists: Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 5:49PHISean CouturierAssists: Brandon Manning, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 8:06PHIRadko GudasAssists: Dale Weise, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 9:19PHIJordan WealGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.42 xG0–4
- P1 15:42PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–5
- P2 3:14NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Stephen Gionta, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 0:40NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 16:02NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Casey Cizikas, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 18:19PHIValtteri FilppulaENAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Chris VandeVelde · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:28PHIDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:28NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:54NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:53NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:53PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:20PHIBrandon Manning: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHIDale Weise: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:47PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:47NYIJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:48PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Clutterbuck – Cizikas7:05
xG 0.92–0.14 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Nelson9:12
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Quine3:27
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:09
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Leddy3:53
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan7:36
xG 0.43–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan4:01
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Schenn – Couturier8:56
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 11–15goals 3–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:42
xG 0.69–0.38 (65%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- VandeVelde – Schenn – Couturier2:13
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Konecny4:42
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas12:43
xG 0.87–0.52 (62%)attempts 11–16goals 3–0
- MacDonald – Provorov17:14
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Manning2:07
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).