Thu, Mar 30, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 212 | 114 | 02 | 00 | 328 |
| WPG | 115 | 07 | 217 | 12 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:54WPGJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:56ANACorey PerryAssists: Antoine Vermette, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 7:01ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 11:35WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:48WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–3
- OT 3:34WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:42ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:32WPGAndrew Copp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:45ANASami Vatanen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:45WPGPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:11WPGBryan Little: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:30ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:30WPGNelson Nogier: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:44ANARickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:30ANARickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:07ANAJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:07WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Boll – Wagner4:11
xG 0.22–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Eaves – Rakell11:35
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Ritchie10:05
xG 0.07–0.25 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:56
xG 0.32–0.92 (26%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:29
xG 0.88–0.42 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Vatanen11:39
xG 0.13–0.47 (22%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour14:42
xG 0.20–1.04 (16%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:10
xG 1.18–0.45 (72%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine11:41
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Petan – Tanev3:13
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp9:20
xG 0.29–0.36 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Melchiori14:45
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Trouba – Morrissey16:10
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Stuart – Nogier8:40
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).