Thu, Mar 30, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 014 | 113 | 240 |
| EDM | 211 | 06 | 15 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01SJSJannik HansenAssists: Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:22EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:28EDMConnor McDavidSHAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Drake Caggiula · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 7:51EDMPatrick MaroonGWGAssists: Kris Russell · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 13:59SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Jannik Hansen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:26SJSBrenden Dillon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:36EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:06EDMAnton Slepyshev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:09EDMAdam Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:09SJSJannik Hansen: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:15SJSMelker Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:36SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:51EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:51SJSJoe Pavelski: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Tierney – Meier4:28
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hansen – Boedker – Hertl7:45
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:23
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Marleau – Ward – Donskoi4:28
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Dillon13:03
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun12:33
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Martin – Burns14:49
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid12:59
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Letestu – Slepyshev – Caggiula7:16
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:57
xG 0.26–0.26 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian10:32
xG 0.09–0.78 (11%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell13:59
xG 0.74–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Larsson – Klefbom13:28
xG 0.50–0.65 (44%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Benning – Nurse11:15
xG 0.29–0.77 (27%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).