Fri, Mar 31, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 010 | 111 | 127 |
| NYI | 110 | 116 | 012 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 17:54NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 11:23NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: John Quenneville, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:27NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:17NJDJoseph Blandisi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:11NJDJoseph Blandisi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:27NJDStefan Noesen: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:59NJDTaylor Hall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:21NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P2 3:24NJDBlake Coleman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:58NJDBeau Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:39NYIJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:42NYIThomas Hickey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:18NJDBeau Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:03NJDSteven Santini: Interference2 min
- P3 19:13NJDBen Lovejoy: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:13NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:13NJDBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Hall9:49
xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Noesen – Blandisi – Zacha5:28
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bennett – Coleman – Wood6:15
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Zacha2:31
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Santini9:11
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Moore3:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Kapla4:30
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier6:39
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Tavares – Lee – Quine7:08
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Prince6:04
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Nelson8:18
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan12:42
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:44
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pelech10:57
xG 0.44–0.62 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).