Sat, Apr 1, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 210 | 013 | 226 |
| BOS | 113 | 210 | 26 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:03BOSNoel AcciariUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:38FLAThomas VanekAssists: Colton Sceviour, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 7:56BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 9:53FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 14:30BOSDavid KrejciGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:16BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–4
- P3 19:48BOSPatrice BergeronENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:08FLAJussi Jokinen: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:16BOSNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:16FLAColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:31BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:26BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P2 17:01FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:06BOSKevan Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 17:53FLAThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Trocheck – Huberdeau13:12
xG 0.75–0.61 (55%)attempts 18–6goals 0–2
- Jokinen – Smith – Marchessault6:41
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Vanek – Sceviour – Bjugstad7:29
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sgarbossa5:00
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson16:12
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Kindl – Demers10:35
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Yandle – Petrovic14:12
xG 0.42–1.24 (25%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak2:13
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Stafford – Krejci – Pastrnak5:56
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand9:24
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Beleskey – Spooner2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Miller11:53
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo12:48
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- McQuaid – Miller2:10
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).