Sun, Apr 2, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 312 | 06 | 330 |
| CBJ | 08 | 012 | 217 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:12WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:56WSHAndre BurakovskySHAssists: Lars Eller, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 10:05WSHMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 9:22CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 15:33CBJKyle QuinceyAssists: Brandon Saad, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:04WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 6:20CBJWilliam Karlsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:20WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:55WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:39CBJSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:21WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21CBJKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:49
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky7:02
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:32
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson9:56
xG 0.13–0.49 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov15:05
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Orpik – Shattenkirk11:25
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson14:58
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 5–24goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Saad – Wennberg5:59
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Korpikoski – Calvert – Karlsson3:31
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Gagner – Calvert2:29
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Anderson2:48
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Jones4:45
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Quincey – Jones2:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Harrington7:59
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).