Sun, Apr 2, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 113 | 09 | 014 | 136 |
| STL | 17 | 28 | 110 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, David Perron · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:22NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 0:55STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:47STLDavid PerronAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 8:11STLJoel EdmundsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:07STLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:03STLVladimir Tarasenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:48NSHAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P1 9:58STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:58STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:22NSHCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P2 15:16STLScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:25NSHKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:33STLAlexander Steen: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 10:57NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Jarnkrok – Fiala9:54
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Wilson – Smith – Sissons8:59
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Fiddler – McLeod – Watson3:36
xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:46
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Josi – Ellis14:09
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Irwin – Bitetto12:05
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:54
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 12–12goals 0–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJaskin – Sanford – Barbashev8:51
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:41
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:38
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Paajarvi9:37
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko14:38
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Schmaltz – Lindbohm11:08
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:17
xG 0.40–0.59 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).