Sun, Apr 2, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 116 | 011 | 232 |
| MIN | 315 | 211 | 02 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04MINMartin HanzalAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 5:27MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Erik Haula, Mikko Koivu · Deflected, 0.30 xG0–2
- P1 17:03COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: J.T. Compher, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 19:40MINErik HaulaGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 3:35MINZach ParisePPAssists: Eric Staal, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 16:16MINJordan SchroederAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P2 17:09COLMikko RantanenAssists: Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:41MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:28COLFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45COLAnton Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:10MINMikko Koivu: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Landeskog – Compher12:15
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – Grigorenko9:13
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:41
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Bourque – Nieto – Jost12:08
xG 0.16–0.66 (20%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson4:03
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson2:22
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Barberio – Barrie3:07
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Hanzal – Coyle12:21
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Koivu – Haula – Granlund11:51
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Staal – Parise – Niederreiter10:15
xG 0.39–0.22 (63%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Stewart – Schroeder – Eriksson Ek9:17
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:02
xG 1.11–0.50 (69%)attempts 19–21goals 2–1
- Scandella – Dumba16:27
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Suter – Scandella2:01
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).