Mon, Apr 3, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 114 | 316 | 07 | 0 | 445 |
| DET | 016 | 27 | 25 | 05 | 1 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:40DETFrans NielsenAssists: Nick Jensen, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 1:46OTTAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:57DETDylan LarkinSHAssists: Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 0:51OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 5:53DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 8:00DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Mike Green, Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 8:22OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 12:31OTTFredrik ClaessonAssists: Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 4. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 5. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 6. OTT Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 7. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 8. OTT Tom Pyatt stopped
- 9. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 10. OTT Mark Stone stopped
- 11. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 12. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
- 13. DET Evgeny Svechnikov scored
- 14. OTT Colin White stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:17DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:11DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:36OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:28OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Brassard – Hoffman10:47
xG 1.22–0.47 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Burrows – Stalberg – Brassard3:32
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Burrows – Ryan – Turris4:19
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone3:14
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson17:50
xG 0.97–0.42 (70%)attempts 31–15goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Harpur7:57
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Wideman – Claesson2:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Larkin – Svechnikov11:34
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Street – Athanasiou – Nosek5:53
xG 0.12–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar15:19
xG 0.77–0.98 (44%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Sheahan11:31
xG 0.59–0.86 (40%)attempts 9–24goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser15:31
xG 0.98–0.53 (65%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Russo – Ouellet13:38
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green19:10
xG 0.59–1.66 (26%)attempts 14–36goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).