Mon, Apr 3, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 06 | 314 | 431 |
| FLA | 07 | 115 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:12MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 8:57FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Michael Sgarbossa, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:25MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 16:49MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Paul Byron · Slap, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 18:34MTLAlexander RadulovENAssists: Max Pacioretty, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 10:55FLADerek MacKenzie: Holding2 min
- P2 15:35MTLAndrew Shaw: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:27MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:44FLAMichael Sgarbossa: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:44MTLPhillip Danault: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:31FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen9:37
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault9:27
xG 0.45–0.24 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Shaw3:11
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher13:52
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Petry16:16
xG 1.00–0.57 (64%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Davidson – Nesterov14:17
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Emelin – Beaulieu14:44
xG 0.65–0.61 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault3:20
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Malgin2:26
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Vanek – Marchessault – Malgin5:57
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Bjugstad7:56
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Weegar13:29
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Matheson18:06
xG 0.81–1.10 (42%)attempts 16–19goals 0–2
- Yandle – Demers15:57
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).