Tue, Apr 4, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New Jersey Devils 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 016 | 09 | 00 | 035 |
| NJD | 09 | 09 | 08 | 11 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 0:59NJDJohn MooreGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:42PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:10NJDBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:20PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:35PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:34NJDBen Thomson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:51PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:54PHIMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:06NJDBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Schenn – Couturier6:56
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McDonald – VandeVelde – Vecchione4:56
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Bellemare2:04
xG 0.04–0.15 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Konecny3:12
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Provorov12:06
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Del Zotto13:03
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Hall – Zacha11:30
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Bennett – Noesen – Blandisi6:56
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Coleman – Thomson6:58
xG 0.16–0.21 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Santini11:56
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson10:06
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy11:35
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).