Tue, Apr 4, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 016 | 113 | 139 |
| PIT | 110 | 211 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51PITCarter RowneyAssists: Scott Wilson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 9:26PITPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 12:30PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 0:33PITJake GuentzelAssists: Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–4
- P3 10:20CBJBrandon DubinskySHUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:23CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:44CBJSam Gagner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:53CBJBoone Jenner: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:53PITJosh Archibald: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:31CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:07PITJustin Schultz: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Anderson – Milano9:19
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Karlsson8:53
xG 0.65–0.15 (82%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Saad – Wennberg3:33
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Bjorkstrand2:33
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Johnson5:36
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard9:35
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Quincey – Jones3:57
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Hornqvist – Kuhnhackl4:50
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary11:47
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Rust7:15
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Archibald – Rowney6:54
xG 0.42–1.12 (27%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Ruhwedel9:34
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Cole – Ruhwedel4:22
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz12:36
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).