Tue, Apr 4, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 113 | 212 | 438 |
| TOR | 03 | 010 | 115 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:34WSHLars EllerAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 10:00WSHKevin ShattenkirkPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 8:11WSHNate SchmidtAssists: Brett Connolly, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 16:44WSHTom WilsonAssists: Daniel Winnik, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 18:52TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:28TORMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P1 5:33WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:17TORJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:17WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:55WSHMatt Niskanen: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:34TORMitch Marner: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 12:35WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P3 13:47TORLeo Komarov: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:45WSHAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:51
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:40
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:25
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson9:07
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Schmidt9:09
xG 1.09–0.17 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 3–0
- Orpik – Shattenkirk13:38
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov15:44
xG 0.54–1.01 (35%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:36
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews8:20
xG 0.37–0.29 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Boyle – Martin – Kapanen3:39
xG 0.06–0.09 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown10:48
xG 0.29–0.89 (25%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick11:35
xG 0.76–0.64 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Rielly – Carrick12:13
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly2:26
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).