Tue, Apr 4, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 0, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 03 | 010 | 024 |
| OTT | 16 | 112 | 06 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:49OTTTom PyattAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:29DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:50DETHenrik Zetterberg: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:57OTTDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:35DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:35OTTKyle Turris: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:58OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Larkin – Svechnikov10:37
xG 0.42–0.14 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Street – Athanasiou – Nosek7:15
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Sheahan9:05
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar12:56
xG 0.08–0.31 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green15:40
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Russo – Ouellet11:25
xG 0.18–0.20 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser15:13
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hoffman – Stone6:48
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau5:26
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Wingels – Pageau2:49
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – MacArthur – Wingels3:12
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Harpur4:25
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson3:33
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman8:21
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).