Tue, Apr 4, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 311 | 211 | 531 |
| STL | 14 | 19 | 013 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35STLAlex PietrangeloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:47WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Stuart, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 2:01WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 2:49WPGMark StuartGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 4:38STLJori LehteraAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 4:48WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 9:02WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:38STLPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
- P2 9:15WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 17:22STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:22WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Laine12:17
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Lowry – Armia – Copp13:41
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:20
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Thorburn – Petan – Tanev5:50
xG 0.02–0.44 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Melchiori17:57
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Stuart – Nogier12:37
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 18–16goals 3–0
- Trouba – Morrissey18:02
xG 0.16–0.98 (14%)attempts 10–19goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Paajarvi – Schwartz5:02
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:08
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Paajarvi9:00
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Berglund – Perron – Sanford5:01
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko15:51
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:04
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 2–3
- Parayko – Lindbohm2:21
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).