Tue, Apr 4, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 36 | 012 | 012 | 330 |
| MIN | 316 | 115 | 15 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39MINZach PariseAssists: Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 6:56CARLee StempniakAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 11:05MINJordan SchroederAssists: Mathew Dumba, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 16:19CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P1 18:16MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P1 19:48CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak, Derek Ryan · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 7:25MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Christian Folin, Martin Hanzal · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 14:18MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Zach Parise, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:07CARKlas Dahlbeck: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:16MINErik Haula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 1:19MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:19MINMathew Dumba: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:21MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho9:34
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan11:54
xG 0.25–0.57 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Nordstrom – Rask – Lindholm10:46
xG 0.15–0.54 (21%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bickell – McGinn – Poturalski11:15
xG 0.26–0.83 (24%)attempts 7–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Hanifin16:44
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
- Dahlbeck – Tennyson12:36
xG 0.10–0.59 (14%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce20:18
xG 0.27–1.10 (20%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Niederreiter12:14
xG 0.81–0.16 (84%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Koivu – Haula – Granlund12:05
xG 0.73–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Pominville – Hanzal – Coyle12:27
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- White – Schroeder – Eriksson Ek8:01
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon8:04
xG 1.02–0.13 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Suter – Folin5:07
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin3:08
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).